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Bitcoin 2022 bear market ‘usual’ despite key trend line loss — analyst

Bitcoin ( BTC ) spending an “unprecedented” period below a key moving average is a poor guide to the 2022 bear market. That was the opinion of analyst Superswell, who this week championed on-chain metrics as a way of understanding current BTC price action. In a series of tweets on Dec. 5, Superswell challenged those concerned about the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) disappearing as support on BTC/USD. “Over the last few months, I’ve seen quite a few people point out that BTC failing to find support at the 200wkSMA is unprecedented and therefore we’re in uncharted territory – especially considering how much time we have spent below,” part the thread read. BTC/USD fell below the 200 SMA in mid-August, taking its stint with the trend line as resistance to nearly four months — a record, as confirmed by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView . As Cointelegraph continues to report , however, on-chain data tells a different story, and has been compiling bear market bottom signals for weeks or longer. Superswell highlighted four in particular from on-chain analytics firm, Glassnode: percent supply in profit , percent volume in profit, adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) and market value versus realized value (MVRV) . While these have so far not beaten (or in some cases, even matched) previous bear markets, this is no reason to fear the worst, Superswell continued. “From an on-chain perspective, this is business as usual *so far* for a macro bottom and bear market,” he wrote. An example came in the form of percent volume in profit — a chart showing what portion of transaction volume involved coins moving at a higher price than they did last time. Currently trending down, the metric needs to begin an uptrend — a series of higher swing lows and swing higher highs, which Superswell says would “confirm a macro reversal.” “This is just an example of *one* reversal pattern. There are many to look for,” he noted. Glassnode itself meanwhile also targeted profit and loss, which superswell described as “*the* invisible hand” in the market, for macro cues this week. Related: How much is Bitcoin worth today? In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “ The Week On-Chain ,” researchers noted that losses outpacing gains have “historically coincided with a macro market regime shift.” An accompanying chart showed the ratio of on-chain realized losses versus realized gains — in other words, the ratio of loss-making on-chain transactions to those carried out in profit. “Here we can observe that the ratio between realized profit / loss has recorded a new all time low,” Glassnode summarized. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Creator :Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Published on : 2022-12-06 08:23:19

Source :cointelegraph

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